Have Dollars, Sell It OFF

US Economy is in problem, everyone knows it. First the sub-prime crisis, then the overall Financial Crisis due to liquidity crunch, and now overall economy in recession. No one should be unaware of this fact.

But are you following the Financial Markets? If yes, then you must be knowing that value of USD is increasing w.r.t. all major currencies of the World. Surprising huh!!
Earlier when the sub-prime crisis started people throughout the World just got panicked and lost their confidence in US Economy. They started doing transaction in other currencies, and selling whatever dollar they have. In this period, Indian Rupees went stronger against dollar from Rs. 45 per dollar to Rs. 39 per Dollar in 4 months window.
This was obvious as people had more confidence in Indian Economy than US. But suddenly dollar value started rising while the US Economy was going from Bad to Worse. Investment Banks collapsed, then the major banks went into crisis and now Auto Companies are in the verge of collapse, the employment scenario look gloomy; but still dollar rises.

Few argue that these things are obvious because by this time other World Economies went into crisis. But are other Economies worse off than US? It is not specially when I consider Indian Economy. Europe and Japan are in recession; but China and India are not. So, why does value of dollar increases against these currencies?

It is all because US Economy dominates the World, and specially whole of Asia is run by American Investments. When the American investors had bad time at home, all they could do is sell overseas operations or buy dollar from outside and fund their US operations. The impact is so huge that US Govt. had to sell hundreds of billions of dollars to few of the Economies to control the dollar shortage. Korea South, Taiwan and others took about 30 to 50 billion dollars each from US; but still the money market seems skewed towards dollar shortage.

This could lead to serious consequence of dollar collapse in coming days. And it can only get more serious if US govt. have actually pumped more dollar by printing it to fight the crisis. With more dollar floating in the market than it was a year back and patchy economy brought by sub-prime and mortgage crisis, all we can expect is a steep correction. I expect it to fall at-least by 30 to 40% against all major currencies as soon as the markets starts getting normal. This however wont be so bad news for US Economy and the US Companies; but it will hurt the general public, the consumers.

So my suggestions general US population is that, just sell the dollar off. Buy some Indian Rupees or Euros, and wait for one year to get a huge bonus. May be it will bring some cheer for you at the end of the crisis. Else you will again lose, lose the value of money you have, and lose the opportunity gain that you could have got.

Good luck!!

Economic Crisis to Analytics

Economic Crisis has hit the World. Now it is not only the US Crisis but a Global One and like never before all the World Governments are doing their best to minimize its effect. Financial Institutions are worst hit followed by Real Estate. This has drilled down to other industries, and now from Telecom to Retail every sector is affected. What has been the effect on Analytics Industry?

Analytics as an industry seems to have got boost. I see a lot of Job Vacancies for Marketing Analytics and Risk Management everyday in all medias, be it in Web (Naukri.com, LinkedIn etc.) or Newspaper (I read Times of India and Economic Times). Even more surprising is to see many Analytics and Business Intelligence start-up companies coming up.
I am not sure if this is the trend everywhere or just in India. But it is really surprising (yet true) that Analytics Jobs are everywhere wherever you see.

Does this mean when Economics fall, people realize the importance of Analytics?? I have no answer but I wont be surprised if someone proves it.

Long back I had read a comparison of importance of Three Major Professionals -- Engineers, Doctors and MBAs with Economists and Sociologists. Let me share with you guys here.

When a country is poor and is having lots of social and economic issues, the people who earn the highest are the Doctors (e.g. most Africa, Asian LDCs) followed by Engineers and MBAs. In these Economies, Economists and Sociologists hardly have any role to play.

When country starts growing the importance of Engineers rise, and their salaries too. They overcome the Doctors and at later stage MBAs overcome all (e.g. in India, China etc). Till this stage Economists and Sociologists role is very limited. (I hardly see any economist making a news in India!! Surprised? Well, don't be. Its the reality)

Now comes the developed World. People hardly want to study Technical subjects (got to know from my friends; but not first hand knowledge). And most Technicians are from Underdeveloped and Developing Nations who serve these economies. This is so normal as Doctors and Engineers have very limited role to play here. Infrastructures are there, and system is there. Here managers rule, and Economists and Socialists rule more. Because this is the time when the society needs values with value creaters, and thoughts with philosophers.

When I remember all these stuffs and I see the increased activity of Analytics Industry in the Crisis Time, I feel its the Analysts Time. The time has come, and we have got this rare opportunity and we should capitalize on it.
By the time Crisis ends, Analytics should establish itself as an Important Business Function on the line of Marketing, IT, and Operations. This would mean every big organization having a CAO (Chief Analytics Officer) along the lines of COO and CMO.

Is this possible? I feel, yes. With the Software Biggies (Oracle, Microsoft, IBM) bringing BI Solutions and many specialized BI and Analytics companies bringing great EDM products this is coming to becoming a reality. Not to forget is the contribution of smaller Analytics Consulting Companies that actually uses (and helps clients to use) these tools to bring efficiency to Business.

What is your take on it? Are you with me? Or against me? Please share your feedback and comments here.

Why Do Europeans and Australians Over React?

When there was bombings in London and Madrid, there was no big cry in India or any Asian countries. It was taken as a security failure and everyone believed that the respective countries will take care of the situation.

Now when there is terror attack in Mumbai, touring English Cricket Team choose to leave India citing security reasons. They left the 7 ODI series in the middle with India winning the series 5-0. Was this done to save it from becoming 7-0? Or is it usual practice of pulling touring team back? I am not sure of it.

England and Australia are masters of pull-out. They have done similar things with Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Zimbabwe earlier. Now they have done to India. Should not this be reciprocated by these Asian nations saying they wont tour those countries too? Or is England safe and Asian not safe for Cricket?
England, Australia and New Zealand have even started talks about shifting World Cup 2011 from Asia to Australia-New Zealand at the time when more than 80% of World Cricketing budget come from Asian four. What does this signify? I have some serious reservations against the bias people outside have against South Asian Nations.

Europe's over reaction stories are plenty. Once Europe used to be one of the best destination market for Nepalese Hand Made Mats, and many people took bank loans to produce these high quality Mats. The economy was booming, and Nepal was gaining good here. Suddenly a news came from European Union regarding banning of Nepalese Mats for use of Child Labors. It was a great step taken by the Developed and Civilized Nations to preserve Child Rights, which ended many villages around Kathmandu into becoming Banks' NPAs. It not only harmed the children but their parents too.

Shocking!! This is a reality. Europeans and Australians often Over React. These are just few example. And no one knows when their rights or environment agenda comes to hurt you. Anyone knows why they do it? Or it is us who does not do it?

Economic Crisis Hit : Move to Work From Home

There are many reasons now to work from home and avoid going to office. If you are in HR or in Operations, better think early.

1. Low Power cost -- you don't have to pay for electricity for Employee's home.
2. Terrorists might attack the office premise but they are not going to bomb multiple employee's house. Maximum they can attack a person, and that also have less probability.
3. When people work from home, they end up working more than they do at office. Being at office can be their excuse for low productivity, but when its work from home they will have to show productivity through results.
4. Save office space cost.
5. Save Office Maintenance Cost including Tea/Coffee and snacks, toilet papers, printing paper etc.
6. Have least tension in your head; employee enjoy home and you enjoy your smooth business ride.
7 Above all score high in Employee Satisfaction score.

If your company is hit by economic crisis, then certainly think of it. IBM and CISCO has started moving this way. It might be your turn now.

Bailout : Death of American Pride and Performance

There are news about bailout everywhere. Any Bank which is in the verge of collapse is saved by the Govt. by bailout. But the more they save, the more are ready on the queue creating a chain reaction in the market.
Reason : when there are two ways to go, people chose the easier way.

When Enron collapsed and IT Burst happened, US govt. choose to let it happen. Few people think, govt. should have kept them alive. Might be they are correct, and after-all why should market punish the general investors when few of the top level executives go wrong. This is a valid point.
The case of Bank is even more serious, not only investors but also the depositors need to be saved. So giving life to troubled banks is very important for economy.

But see the negative part of it. Most of the European govt.s are serious about creating new jobs and keeping existing jobs. They are against outsourcing and always ready to help companies when they face any problem. The result is a peaceful and joyful Europe. But it has to be see, has this done good to Europe? I think NO.
Europe has almost become a museum and old aged economy. The more control they keep with the govt. the lesser is the performance. There are hardly any Revolutionary Company (like Oracle, Microsoft, Google, Pfizer,Mckinsey etc.)that came from Europe in last many decades. They have chosen to live in modesty and stability, and not performance.

I have always found the opposite with the US govt. They have the Green Card Lottery through which they bring in 55k people from all over the world to US providing them Green Card. This is increasing immigrant population in US, but it is moving their economy ahead too. There are always people who work for low cost due to this initiative.

The other good part of US Govt. is letting companies fail, when they don't perform. This makes people cautious of things they do and the company boards always think to improve efficiency and effectiveness within themselves.

But with the introduction of bail out, this culture of performance is gone. Signals are on where company board don't try to live at all cost. They play safe and just cry for help. This is likely to go for many years now. It is the human nature; reversing might be a great challenge for the new govt. And continuing it might hit the already sick American Fiscal Balance. Bad days ahead.

The biggest hit will be on the pride. Americans now cannot boost their belief in Performance. And neither they can do for liberalization and free market. If they come up with such suggestions for other countries like they did to Asian countries in 1995 Asian crisis, they will find no takers.

Someone once asked me what is the religion of Americans. I said Christianity. He said thats of Europe. I gave up. He said, "Europe's religion is Christianity; Middle East's is Islam; India's is Hinduism; Japan's is Buddhism; China's is Communism; and America's is Performance." Wow. I was so impressed. I too worked for FICO earlier, and I was impressed with the culture within the organization to value performance. If you are good, you are sure to grow!

But will it remain same? A big question lies ahead. After-all now the management does not need to value performance, they can seek help and survive!!!!!

Obama's CTO

I am amazed, and I am happy to know that US President Elect Barack Obama is going to keep his CTO. I am wondering why did he call CTO (Chief Technical Officer) and not CTA (Chief Technical Advisor). CTA would have been a post in line with CEA (Chief Economic Advisor), but now when he is keeping CTO the role needs to be more operational than Advisory. Interesting!!

I am wondering who that lucky person be. Obama might have thought a name for the post. He could be Eric Schmidt, Larry Page, Steve Balmer, Bill Gates or Steve jobs. I would support Bill Gates, he just deserves it.
Just kidding, I don't expect these guys to be a CTO of US. They are very technical to be that, but yes, if Obama chose to make someone of this level, it will bring a huge change in the World.

Next important question is, what would CTO do. Will he suggest the President or will he follow what President says. CTO should actually be doing the second. Will have to see what Obama plans to achieve with him. When the Web is going in free use advertisement model, there is little Nation can do to make it to the poor. It already is.
This leaves space for the second mission. He will be working for projects of social cause, like building good monitoring systems and automated e-governance. But I doubt if anything such is left in US to be done.

I fear, and sometime think isn't Obama doing just what he said he wont do. He seems to be taking Capitalism to the next level, and seems to be moving closer to Von Misses. He seems to be creating a govt. which does not own anything but monitors. Govt.s are getting closer to the company, and the only difference being the same customers and investors, the people.

Hillary Clinton is likely to get the Secretary of State. But how about making her Chief Marketing Officer (CMO). She seems a good marketer, and after-all post of Secretary of State is also about Marketing American Policies in the World.

Moving on the same line, how about getting a Chief Information Officer and Chief Policy Architect too. These posts can be filled by the head of CIA and Pentagon. Next comes the Chief Customer Engagement Officer to be taken by the Foreign Secretary. And CFO by the Finance Secretary. Great huh!!

Then President Obama can run America with full logic, and in well thought notions. Not surprising, but true. The Cs will not be the political hires and will represent more bureaucracy than politics. Good for the govt. but will have to see if it actually is good for the people too.

I am optimistic, and will be watching the development very closely.

Indian Govt. Needs to be more Responsible

Indian Govt. have decided to keep the high petroleum prices intact and not bring down after the price of Petroleum has come down from $170 per barrel to $50 per barrel.

The reasons:
1. Govt. had to fight a lot to increase the price and they fear if they can hike in future if they bring down now.
2. Decrease in price could swell the demand, and as India is a net importer it will harm its trade and fiscal balance.
3. The Oil Companies have been harmed when the international prices were high, and now is the time for them to recover the loses.
4. Reliance is coming up with its KG Basin and is going to reduce huge external dependency. But along with that it is also speculated that Reliance is lobbying govt. for not cutting retail prices. all to the benefit of the firm.

Govt. is fighting with Inflation and low economic growth pressure, and they are trying to influence Industries not to fire more people so that unemployment does not shoot up. Economist PM understands the Economics and Financial system much better than I do. But it is really surprising to see him choosing not to lower energy prices to shoot demand and go for bleeding the already failing companies.
He is also using Financial measures like reducing CRR and Interest Rates to fight the crisis. This is increasing money supply in the market but this can hardly solve the industry problems. The crisis is global and it has come to India with the reduction of Global demand for Indian products. This has coupled with insufficient fund for companies to expand in India.

PM rightly took the second cause. But if the first does not bounce back and if there is no demand in the grass root level, the increased money supply may just end up rising inflation and lowering currency value. He might need to learn from Zimbabwe and Japan. Japan's use of these instruments in 1995 Asian crisis didn't do any good. And Zimbabwe's current Financial collapse is horrible.

PM Manmohan Singh has taken Indian and Developing Nations issues to G20 Summit. He has criticized WB, IMF and the developed nations for not doing enough to tackle the crisis and putting false blame in developing nations while they are just the victims of the crisis. He is probably correct and it seems India is really getting ready for taking some responsibility in the International Governance.
But does India want greater role in the International Area at the time when Most of the Asian Economies (Including India) grows on American Consumerism? Has time not come yet for India to push itself for increased consumerism and uplift the social/economic status of the general people?

Indian Govt. and India Inc may seriously need to review this. Blame game hardly helps.